Coronavirus may well become a disaster of historic proportions, but probably not in the way you imagine...

Today, on the 6^th of April, 2020 the national death toll from Coronavirus is sitting at approximately 10,500.  My guess is that we're probably less than a week away from the oft discussed apex of the curve and whenever the end of this virus pandemic is eventually declared, the country will have suffered fewer than 50,000 deaths, possibly far fewer.  I could be wrong on both counts of course, and perhaps by a lot… but we’ll have to wait and see.

There are two questions that are resonating in my head about when this unprecedented overreaction is finally over.  The first is the economy.  How long will the economy take to rebound?  On the one hand, 60% of the economy is still functioning…  Supermarkets, hospitals, police stations, restaurants – of the take out or delivery variety – Facebook, Google, Amazon, Netflix, UPS, the military, gas stations, lawn maintenance, construction and many more pieces.  Nonetheless, a lot things are idled:  Gyms, movie theaters, schools, churches, dine in restaurants, countless small businesses, everything wedding related, the NBA, MLB, Golf, NASCAR and many other pieces.  Every one of those shuttered businesses, and many of those still functioning have a long list of suppliers - of both the service and goods variety - who have been impacted by this shutdown. Some of the businesses who have found themselves shuttered will never reopen.  Those that reopen will likely find challenges getting back on their game, not only from the perspective of the ramp up in demand from customers, but simple logistics and figuring out how to get their supplier pipelines moving as well. 

Whatever is the case, the economy will come back, and given the combination of government largesse and pent up demand, there could be a short term surge in many areas as people leap out of their homes and dash into coffee shops, restaurants and possibly stores.  The question is however, how long will it take to ramp back up to the point where we return to the trajectory we were on the end of 2019 and a $22 trillion economy, and what will that economy look like?

That last point brings me to the second of my questions… and the far more important one.  What will the economy and the country look like?  After Uncle Sam injects $2.2 trillion into the economy and the Fed greases the wheels to the tune of twice that, what will come of the free market?

Assuming that the economy doesn’t do a complete face plant, which I don’t expect but is a realistic possibility, Keynesians and progressives of all stripes are going to assert that if stimulus works during an emergency, we should use it – including guaranteed universal income – all the time.  Taxes could easily be raised on millionaires and billionaires to cover any outlays and the stimulated spending by the working class would help drive the economy.

Those faulty economics and their inflation and stagnation inducing polices are not even the biggest concern for the nation!  The real concern is that this staggering overreaction will have set a precedent.  Without a serious, demonstrated threat to the wellbeing of the nation as a whole, going only with models that predicted millions of dead, governments across the country have essentially quarantined more than 80% of the American population and 100% in the largest metro areas. 

Months or years from now, when history shows us that the Americans were basically quarantined, $10 trillion of stock market value was wiped out and trillions of dollars of economic activity evaporated almost overnight because of a virus that ended up taking fewer than 50,000 lives, what will politicians, activists and the media do for something like global warming, which we’re told for certain will cost the lives of tens of millions of people around the world?  Or how about the next Chinese virus?  I can hear the argument now:  “Covid 19 only killed 50,000 people BECAUSE of the lockdowns… This new XYZ virus is even more virulent and we need to do the same thing otherwise tens of millions of Americans will be dead within a month.”  Lockdown!  Shut down the economy.  Close schools, theaters and every other meeting place!  Churches too!  And churches that refuse refuse to comply with service cessation orders? Close them!  First Amendment be damned! 

Nor will it necessarily be a virus that causes the next lockdown(s).  How many times have we heard that the carnage from murder in cities like Baltimore or Chicago is an emergency or a crisis?  How much resistance would there be to mayors or governors deciding that they have the power to supersede the Constitution to deal with their “crisis”?  And pointing to the Covid 19 precedent as proof that they have the authority.  Second Amendment be damned! 

No longer will science have to prove that something is an actual threat to humanity or Americans or even a city or town in order for the government to mandate anything.  From forcing employers to hire certain workers, to compelling companies to make these or those products, from seizing assets to  coercing citizens to curtail activities protected by the Constitution… where does the line get drawn?  Make no mistake, precedent can be a bear, particularly in the hands of progressives who seek to use the power of government to undermine the individual rights of virtually every American, except of course, criminals.

Coronavirus may well turn out to be a disaster of epic proportions, but probably not in the way you imagine.  It very well may be the nose that allows the progressive camel of tyranny into the tent under which the American experiment flourished for so long.  And once the likes of Nancy Pelosi, Ralph Northam, Bill de Blasio and the rest of the progressive fascists on the left take control freedom as we understand it and the Constitution as a functioning document will be but mere memories.  “Constitution? Federalism? Individual liberty? Free markets?  Sorry, we’re temporarily suspending them… We’ve got a crisis to deal with!” 

Why the shutdown scares the petty vindictive little man Barack Obama

Despite the fact that the average federal employee earns $123,000 (2010 numbers) in salary and benefits while the average private sector employee earns $61,000, my sympathy goes out to those who have found themselves on the sidelines because of Barack Obama and Harry Reid’s shutdown. Despite the fact that they will likely get all of their backpay and perhaps a bit more, it’s always difficult to see people have their finances thrown into chaos. Nonetheless, big government is a cancer on productivity, and while a million federal employees are feeling the pinch of this impasse, tens of millions of Americans are feeling the pinch of no jobs, reduced hours and losing their healthcare because of big government and ObamaCare. Viva la shutdown!

The old saying goes: “Sometimes you have to break some eggs in order to make an omelet.” In this case a more appropriate characterization might be “Sometimes you have to break some eggs in order to put on a banquet.” Given that federal regulations are so costly to American businesses – and consequently to Americans themselves – the extended furlough or firing of the apparatchiks employed to enforce government regulations would allow for a resurgence of economic activity, leading to a return of American prosperity. According to the Competitive Enterprise Institute, federal regulations will cost Americans $1.8 Trillion this year or about $14,000 per household. How would you like to have an extra $14,000 per year to spend? Well, let’s be generous and suggest that 25% of the government’s regulations are both Constitutional and worthwhile. That would mean that the bonus would only be $11,500 per year. How much of a jolt do you think you could give your community if you and every one of your neighbors had an additional $1,000 a month to spend? I guarantee you it’s a lot more than an omelet.

This shutdown is 100% owned, lock, stock and barrel by Barack Obama and the Democrats. As wasteful as most of the government spending is, the House passed a bill that would fund every single piece of it other than Obamacare. The Senate rejected that and the President promised to veto it if it made it to his desk. They can whine as much as they want about obstructionism, but the fact is that they can have everything they want other than something that a majority of Americans don’t want. Cry as they might, the spilled milk has their fingerprints all over the bottle.

Barack Obama is a petty, spiteful, vindictive little man. In order to make sure that Americans knew the shutdown was going on – because most probably wouldn’t notice as they have lives and are not part of the Democrat / Big Government / Mainstream Media Industrial Complex in the first place – Barack Obama chose to inflict the greatest amount of pain possible. If you’ve never been to Washington to see the WWII monument, it’s a beautiful, spacious open air monument with marble pillars, arches and fountains which is accessible 24 hours a day. You don’t need to buy a ticket to see it, there’s nothing for anyone to do to make sure you can enjoy it, all you have to do is just walk across 17th St. from the Washington Monument and you’re there. You just walk around, that’s it. Barack Obama decided to actually spend money to put up barricades so that you could not visit it during the shutdown. When veterans who actually fought in WWII came to see it and ignored his barricades, he spent more money to have the barricades tethered together and then employed horse mounted Rangers there to ensure that the heroes could not visit the monument to THEM! (Until the veterans announced their visits were protected 1st Amendment activities...) What’s worse, according to one Park Ranger: “We’ve been told to make life as difficult for people as we can. It’s disgusting.” If that were not enough, at the same time he threatened to arrest supplemental Catholic priests if they volunteered their time to conduct Mass for military personnel who have no priests available to them. He had police kick veterans and visitors off the Vietnam Memorial, which is literally an open air wall and a walkway dug into the ground. He even tried to close the ocean down in Florida. But if he wants to play golf the course on Andrew’s Air Force Base is open.

Like most things in Washington, words don’t always mean what they actually mean. A shutdown in plain English means that something is frozen, stopped, not functioning. In Washington parlance however, shutdown means that 83% of the budget is still being spent. So the shutdown which President Obama and the rest of the lefties are denouncing really only equates to 17% of the federal government, or about exactly what the government spent just a few short years ago.

Ronald Reagan endured half a dozen shutdowns at the hands of the stridently partisan Tip O’Neill and the world did not come to an end. It won’t end now either. This shutdown will not bring about Armageddon any more than sequester did. What it might do however is focus American’s attention on the fact that the nanny state is not as important as those in Washington would like us to believe. Many Americans might be surprised to discover that not only does the sun continue to rise during the shutdown, but the neighborhood supermarket still opens, cable TV is still on the air and their cars still run. Frankly, that’s a danger for Barack Obama and big government types of all stripes, because once Americans rediscover that they can survive without big government they just might start pushing back. And when they start the bell will soon begin to toll for much of what government has appropriated for itself over the last half century... and with it will go the confiscatory taxes that have made that encroachment possible. As such, don’t be surprised to see Obama and Co. continue to look for new ways to inflict pain on the American people. The question is, will the squishes in the GOP be able to stomach the fight long enough for Americans to come to the realization that they don’t need a nanny state to hold their hands from cradle to grave? Let’s hope they do.