Showing posts with label flu. Show all posts
Showing posts with label flu. Show all posts

Monday, September 20, 2021

The Cabal That Cried Wolf and Undermined a Republic

Jussie Smollett, Crystal Magnum and Susan Smith are three names that at various times over the last 25 years have riveted America’s attention.  Smollett is a black man who lied about being attacked by two Trump supporting white racists in 2019.  Magnum is a black woman who lied about being raped by three white Duke Lacrosse players in 2006.  Smith is a white woman who killed her two boys in 1994 and blamed it on a fictional black carjacker.

While race was central to the first and incidental to the last two, as is with much news in America, the media focused on it extensively.  But race was not the issue that makes these three cases so despicable.  What makes them so heinous is that they sought to play upon the sympathies of the American public.  In the end they failed and all three ended up disgraced and Magnum and Smith ended up in jail.    

From Al Sharpton & Tawana Brawley 30 years ago to countless hate crime hoaxes across the country today, the consequence of these hoaxes is that when exposed to enough of them, people become inured to the issue such that when real crimes take place, the victim’s stories are often given little credence or are outright rejected.   

As despicable as these hoaxes are, they are simply individuals seeking to evade responsibility for their actions or attract attention, and largely don’t impact significant numbers of people beyond those targeted or involved. 

What is a much larger problem however is when such hoaxes are perpetrated by government.  And we’ve had a great deal of that.  Manmade environmental hoaxes have evolved from the Coming Ice Age to Acid Rain to Global Warming to Climate Change, with each one being manipulated to scare citizens and implement government policies and programs that never die, despite the fact that posited catastrophes never actually emerge.  Think about the “Peak oil” fears of the 70s and the ethanol programs we’re still stuck with today, despite the extraordinary increases in oil production and reserves.

Democrats have been manipulating Americans fears and goodwill for decades and today we are watching the culmination of that treachery.  It’s called Covid and it’s easily the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. 

In reality, Covid is nothing more than a really bad case of the common cold.  Bad, certainly, but but basically the common cold nonetheless. From an epidemiology perspective that may not be completely accurate, but from a societal one it most certainly is. 

Like the flu – which kills about 36,000 people annually, Covid is largely transmitted from one person to another via airborne particles.  Over the last 18 months 42 million Americans have gotten Covid and 682,000 Americans have died from it.  The former number is likely much higher – possibly over 100 million – and the latter number is likely much lower, with many of those reported as dying of Covid in reality dying with Covid.  Keep in mind of course that that’s 682,000 people in a country of 350 million, and 95% of the dead had on average 3 or more co-morbidities and the average age was almost 75.

A little more perspective:  Heart disease annually kills 650,000 Americans while cancer kills 600,000.  We spend $350 billion a year on heart disease and $158 billion on cancer.  That works out to be $538,000 spent per person who died of heart disease and $263,000 per person who died of cancer.  Covid is a bit different.  Through March of this year the US spent $13 trillion on Covid and will likely reach $20 trillion by the end of the year.  By the end of the year the death total “from” Covid will likely hit 800,000.  That works out to be approximately $25 million per death.

Now these numbers are not exactly apples to apples in that much of the heart disease and cancer money went to research that would not benefit the people who died, while ostensibly Covid dollars went to ameliorating the virus and its associated impact on the nation.  Then of course there’s the fact that heart disease and cancer aren’t contagious while Covid is. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the survival rate from Covid is 99% or higher for men below 57 and women below 62 while the average 5 year survival rate from cancer is below 50%. 

The point here is simply that while Covid is certainly a cause of concern, it’s nothing close to an existential threat to the nation. But one wouldn’t know that from listening to the Democrats, traditional media, big tech and the healthcare industry.  For purely political and control purposes, they have conspired against the American people to hide facts about potential treatments, lied at almost every turn and sought to harness the police power of government to control virtually every aspect of American life over the last 18 months. The results have been catastrophic, from a fraudulent election to millions of failed businesses to an array of restrictions and mandates that don’t even pretend to be Constitutional.

As bad as all the obvious negative outcomes from this unprecedented destruction of freedom and staggering amount of debt will bring about, possibly the worst part of the last 18 months (besides the deaths, obviously) is that the cabal has basically wrecked what little confidence Americans had in their government.  After being manipulated, persecuted, prosecuted and insulted for the better part of 18 months, how much confidence does the average American have in their government today?  Practically none. Actually, now that a Democrat is back in the White House Democrats have embraced their inner statists and their trust has ticked up while Republicans have the lowest trust level in Government since Barack Obama’s first term – and that was back in May, which seems a lifetime ago.

And that undermining of government could very well come back to bite Americans of all stripes.  What happens when we get a real existential threat from something as deadly as Ebola and as easily transmitted as the Delta variant?  Will Americans believe that their government has suddenly become honest and responsible?  Probably not, and their skepticism grows as they see more hypocrisy and are saddled with a growing array of mandates that are demonstrably ineffective or worse, dangerous. 

The odds of a real virus borne existential threat are likely pretty low, but a visceral distrust in government is very much an existential threat to freedom and the Republic. Once before Americans were similarly distrustful of government and skeptical about its intentions and thirst for power.  The result was the Declaration of Independence.  I wonder what similar distrust in 2021 will engender... 

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Government Largess Can't Keep Economic Blood From Spilling - Particularly With Petty Fascist Autocrats in Charge


The stock market, after dropping 35% from its all time high on February 19th sits today up about 30% from its March 23 low.  Overall the S&P 500 is down a mere 14% from its apex.  Everything being equal, things must be pretty good…

Not so much.  Although the world is slowly thawing from its government imposed freeze, the truth is far less sanguine than the stock market might suggest, i.e. that this Coronavirus scare was just a minor speedbump on our economic march to prosperity and beyond…

The reality is far darker, and the only reason that’s not readily apparent is that the federal government and the fed have poured $10 trillion or so into our economy via direct payments, loans, bonds and guarantees and governments around the world have taken similar steps. 

The fact that 30 million Americans today find themselves out of work will not be quickly fixed.  Jobs are not the kinds of things you can simply switch on and off… at least not in a capitalist economy. Businesses create jobs by trying to meet market demands in hope of earning a profit.  The Coronavirus shutdown has obliterated that entire dynamic.   

Restaurants are possibly the best resource to look to in order to get a picture of what the future holds.  Why?  Because restaurants are among the most entrepreneurial aspects of the American economy and they employ fully 10% of American workers.  There are about 1,000,000 restaurants in the United States and 13,000 more open each year, while a similar number close annually.  Of those million restaurants, 70% are single unit operations, 90% employ fewer than 50 employees and 6 in 10 adults have worked in a restaurant.

So what do restaurants tell us about the future?  It doesn’t look good…

Imagine you own a restaurant.  Not a fast food chain restaurant where 70% or more of the business was drive thru even before Coronavirus hit, but a restaurant where patrons come in, look at a menu, give their orders to a waiter and then eat on the premises. 

You’ve been largely idled for much of the last two months.  You might have been able to retool a bit in order to serve some take out or delivery orders, but odds are you simply closed.

Over the years you’ve adjusted your floorplan, you’ve tweaked your menu and you’ve trained your employees to upsell everything from wine and add ons to desert and cappuccino.  All for a business that probably gives you a 3-5% net profit or twice that if you’re lucky. 

Now you’ve been closed for two months and you’re wondering where you go from here.  Even if you laid off your staff so they could collect unemployment, you were probably still paying (or trying to…) your rent, pest control, outstanding invoices and making payments on the debts you incurred to open the restaurant in the first place. If you didn’t make the payments, they didn’t just disappear; they accumulated and will be waiting to be paid once you open back up. 

Now you find yourself in a quandary.  The governor has said that you can reopen, but in doing so you must take into account social distancing, i.e. your restaurant can only operate with 25% or 50% of the customer capacity.  That means that other than less labor and food, your restaurant has to operate with outlays almost exactly where they were before the virus, but do so with only half or less of the customers and revenue, plus now there are added costs of masks, extensive cleaning operations and perhaps even disposable silverware!  For most restaurants, that’s a money losing proposition.  Even if to-go business were to pick up, there’s little chance that the additional revenue would make up for that lost business.

More important than the revenue, is the margin.  Dine in restaurants make big profits on alcohol, sodas, coffee and desserts, all things that take out customers are less likely to buy than dine in customers.

Adding to all of that, your employees, who are collecting state unemployment plus $600 a week from the federal government, are now earning twice what they earn while working for you, and may well do so for months to come.  Given the economics, many will decline the opportunity to return and lose half the income they’re currently making, which generates pressure on you to offer higher wages.  So now your formerly relatively robust 5% profit margin restaurant business has transformed into a money losing albatross. 

How can one stay in business with numbers like that?  You can’t of course… And that’s the math quandary facing businesses across the country, and of course it’s not just restaurants.  It’s hair stylists and barber shops.  It’s nail salons and massage parlors.  It’s karate classes and dance instructors.  It’s accountants and business consultants.  Its gyms and movie theaters and many other businesses.   And don’t be surprised if schools, churches, hospitals, and government agencies don’t pile on.  Sure, those aren’t businesses, but they are all buy substantial goods and services from businesses…

All of this is particularly important for small businesses because unlike big businesses who often can tap into debt or equity markets, small businesses often face high hurdles when it comes to financing.  And, small businesses (as defined by the SBA as those with under 500 employees) are the lifeblood of the American economy.  They make up 99% of all businesses, employ half the workforce, and generate 70% of all new jobs.  And they are the ones most likely to have been sidelined by this lockdown and will have the most difficult time emerging. 

While government loans and guarantees are helpful, they can’t replace customers who are not there.  They can’t replace demand that has evaporated.  They can’t keep a business in business… and they can’t do any of that for any sustained period of time.  If printing money was the solution to this problem the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe would be poster children for growth and prosperity.

Hence the divergence of the markets and main street.  Government largesse may work in the short run to keep the markets calm and the breadlines from forming, but it’s no recipe for prosperity or even economic growth.  Indeed, big businesses aren’t doing that badly under the current plan because they have legions of lobbyists who can ensure that they successfully navigate the restrictions and find the nuggets in the fine print of outlays, and Wall Street can see that.  But on Main Street, Adam Smith is coming, and he’s bringing Hell with him…

At the end of the day, all businesses depend on customers.  Customers spend money they’ve saved, earned or borrowed.  The first will eventually run out, the second can’t happen without a job and the third will soon be limited to those with pristine credit scores.  The Coronavirus lockdowns and government restrictions haven’t just killed the world's most prosperous economy since World War II, they have kneecapped the basic premise of free markets, that customers are free to buy what they want and sellers are free to sell their goods and services however they see fit.  True, we were hardly a free market before all of this, but now with government edicts about when you can open, what you can sell and how many customers you can have, we’re far closer to Karl Marx than Mr. Smith. 

There will be economic blood in the streets as America realizes that prosperity and economic growth can’t be dictated by government and that in most cases government action is a hindrance to both.  Prosperity requires entrepreneurs who are willing to risk their sweat and treasure to build something in pursuit of profit.  Economic growth requires markets that match consumer demands with businesses who can meet them.  Lockdowns and government edicts hinder both and the longer they go on and the more restrictive they are the more carnage there will be.  Business failures.  Bankruptcies.  Loan, mortgage and credit card defaults.  Tens of millions of Americans who can't find work.  And those are just the things you’ll see.  Imagine the new companies that won’t ever get out of the starting blocks.  The jobs that won’t be created.  The demand that’s simply not there…

Wall Street might imagine this Coronavirus disaster (the lockdowns, not the virus) is just a bump in the road, but it’s not.  It’s a cliff that we’ve been pushed off of, or more accurately, jumped off without much of a fight.  And it looks like the bottom below is littered with jagged rocks and glass.  Sadly we're not Road Runner in a cartoon where we can simply turn around in midair and run back onto solid ground.  It appears that we've become Wiley E. Coyote.  History will not look back favorably on the petty fascist autocrats and their delicate snowflake supporters who used a marginally dangerous virus in their march to undermine capitalism and decimate freedom and prosperity.