America's Game of Russian Roulette: Clinton vs. Trump or Revolution vs. War

I remember in 2008 I told my wife that that presidential election was the most important in a generation. I told her in 2012 that that election was the most important in my lifetime. Both of those statements were completely true. In putting Barack Obama in the White House, for the first time Americans elected a race bating closet Muslim socialist / fascist as the leader of the free world. That is of course unfortunate in many ways for many people around the world. Not only has the American economy been stuck in the worst recession in 65 years, race relations are the worst they’ve been in 50 years, our borders are practically nonexistent, freedom and the Constitution are under constant attack and the image of the United States as a leader on the world stages is in tatters.

Now it’s possible that the election of 2016 is even more important, but sadly there is no relative superhero like John McCain or Mittens Romney on the ticket. I was against both of those squishy centrist candidates from the start and would have much preferred to have an actual conservative on the ticket… but alas it was not to happen.

It was with great expectations that I looked forward to the 2016 campaign as finally an opportunity for a true conservative to emerge from the mosh pit and lead the nation to a victory over the cancer of today’s Democrat party. Unfortunately however that did not happen. Between the GOP establishment’s incompetence and fear of a real conservative, as well as the media’s love of ratings – and that includes the so called “conservative” media – today we have Donald Trump as the standard bearer for the party of Ronald Reagan.

And so it is that Americans, with a population of over 320 million people have put themselves in a situation where the only two people with a realistic chance of becoming the leader of the free world are a lying big government socialist and an uninformed narcissistic thin skinned crony capitalist with no love for freedom. This is essentially the opposite of winning the lottery. Americans have somehow managed to put themselves in a game of Russian Roulette where all of the chambers have rounds in them!

While the elections of 2008 and 2012 set the nation on the road to ruin in terms of economic stagnation, stultifying regulation, the undermining of the Constitution and eviscerating America’s position as leader of the free world, the election of 2016 will have even more devastating effects.

The election of Hillary Clinton will result in the continuation of the policies of Barack Obama, only on steroids. We will get a Supreme Court that will look to the UN charter rather than the US Constitution. We will get continued and increasing regulation which suffocates prosperity and entrepreneurship but which helps big business. We will get increases in taxes, skyrocketing government spending and more race bating. And perhaps most of all, we will surrender our borders and will transform our nation into a refuge from which immigrants can escape the third world only to then work to turn our country into a mirror reflection of said third world.

The election of Donald Trump will give us a crapshoot of broken promises, protectionism, and isolation. At the same time the 1st Amendment may go by way of the dodo bird while regulation will likely grow for the benefit of big businesses and at the expense of entrepreneurs. More ominously, a Donald Trump presidency will create great divisions between the United States and our NATO allies and others who have helped maintain a relative peace for much of the last half century. As the increasingly bellicose Chinese and Russians seek to expand their spheres of influence, the world will watch a President Trump seek to pull back the American footprint. Osama Bin Laden once said “When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse”. In this case the strong horses will be China and Russia, and that does not bode well for freedom or peace for anyone.

So at the end of the day, Americans have a choice to make, and neither is a good one.

The first option will put Hillary Clinton in the White House, and that will lead to a fracturing of the nation, along lines of race, along lines of income, along geographic lines and fundamentally about an understanding of the Constitution and freedom. And that fracturing could very well lead to revolution. And not a theoretical revolution played out in newsrooms and college campuses and on the editorial pages of the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. No, this may indeed turn out to be a real revolution where people revolt against the tyranny of an economically and culturally oppressive government and a dearth of opportunity of any kind. It won’t show itself by a fife and drum corps marching down Main Street. No, it will be in the shadows as more police are targeted, more citizens take matters into their own hands and order starts to come apart while an increasingly militarized police force seeks to keep things in check. This revolution will look a lot more like the one that started in France in 1789 than the one that started in the colonies in 1776.

The second option will put Donald Trump in the White House and that will lead to a calcifying of the American economy, estrangement between the US and erstwhile allies, and at some point, war. And this war will not be a guerilla war fought against jihadis seeking to bring about the caliphate. No, this war will be against Russia or China. As Trump and his little hands pull back from the world stage, the Russians and Chinese will seek to expand their empires, taking Ukraine and Taiwan respectively. In both cases Trump will likely acquiesce, which will only lead to further expansion such as with the Baltics in the case of Russia and any one of half a dozen other countries or islands in the case of China. At some point the threat will become sufficiently ominous and American allies so vocal that the United States will have to engage. And unlike Korea or Vietnam or Afghanistan in the 1980s, this will not be a proxy war limited to some theater most Americans couldn’t find on a map if their lives depended on it. No, this will be a real, hot war with sophisticated enemies throwing billions of dollars of weapons at one another. One can only hope that such a conflict stays conventional…

So as we stumble towards the 2016 election Americans should be aware… they have left themselves with not only no good options, but only terrible options, both of which will likely lead to much bloodshed, chaos and possibly the end of the Republic. Good job Rush, Matt Drudge and the GOP establishment. When your country needed you, you decided to whore yourselves out to a populist megalomaniac. The citizens of dystopia in America’s future will no doubt be quite grateful to you.

Angry GOP Voters and Donald Trump - The Enemy of My Enemy is Not My Friend

I’m angry. I’m actually damn angry. I’m angry that Americans have twice voted into the highest office in the land a man who is demonstrably anti-American, who sows racial tension, who has sought to destroy free markets, who has turned much of the nation into a welfare state and who has crippled the American military and destroyed American influence around the world. To me, Barack Obama is a cancer on the American body politic and the nation.

But I’m not angry at Obama… well, I really am, but he’s not who has animated me the most in the last six years. It’s actually the GOP establishment. I’ve gone to Tea Party rallies near and far. I’ve voted for candidates who claimed they were conservatives. I’ve donated money, I’ve manned phone lines, I’ve put up signs along the highway. I even gave lectures on the constitution and started writing a blog. All for what?

We have Obamacare, lock stock and barrel, and its numerous exceptions, extensions and a plethora of executive orders. We have a NLRB that thinks it can tell companies where they can invest and who they must hire. We have an IRS that’s become a thug enforcement arm of the Democrat party. And of course we have trillions more dollars of debt than we did eight years ago.

Needless to say, I’m angry at the betrayal. In 2010 we were told that the GOP couldn’t do anything because they were a minority in the House. So we voted them into power. Then we were told that we needed the White House, and somehow the GOP was able to screw up an election that should have been theirs on a silver platter. Then in 2014 we were told that they still couldn’t do anything because Harry Reid ran the Senate. By 2015 he was on the sidelines. But now we’re told that they can’t do anything because Democrats control the White House.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 4 times shame on me. Exit poll after exit poll shows that Republican voters are livid with the GOP and want to burn it and Washington to the ground… hence the attraction of Donald Trump. Millions of people across the country who are disgusted with the GOP are flocking to the banner of a guy who will definitely not be held hostage to political correctness. A guy who doesn’t care about sucking up to minority voters. A guy who says what’s on his mind. Indeed, Donald Trump with his big business billions and his big mouth make many Americans stand up and say “Yeah, that’s what I’m talking about!” He makes them feel like an NFL receiver spiking the football right in front of a safety who blew his coverage. In a word, they want a winner who will destroy the liars in Washington.

The problem however is something that was revealed in a 2013 study by Washington State University. The first line of the piece says it all “Being confident and loud is the best way to win an argument - even if you are wrong”. The study basically suggests that people are more drawn to someone who sounds confident and is loud – even obnoxious – than they are to someone who’s right. And with Donald Trump that’s exactly what we have. GOP voters want someone who’s unabashedly pro-American. That’s Trump. They want someone who says he’s going to seal the border. That’s Trump. They want someone who’s immune to political correctness. That’s Trump.

Unfortunately, in this case the ancient adage “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” is simply wrong. Donald Trump may indeed be anti-establishment, but that’s different than being pro freedom, pro prosperity and pro limited government.

Those are the things necessary to change Washington, the things that are necessary to rein in the leviathan of government, the things that are necessary to restore the freedom of the American people and unleash the prosperity that comes with it. Those are the things that Ted Cruz offers, but may not get the opportunity to execute because voters are too busy focusing on the bombastic guy at the other side of the bar.

That of course is Ted Cruz’s challenge over the next month: Demonstrate to GOP voters that trash talking will not fix what’s wrong with the county. Convince them that braggadocio will not dislodge an entrenched bureaucratic borg that seeks to control virtually every aspect of a citizen’s life. Articulate why his constitutional principles make him the correct vehicle for their anger, and not Donald Trump. If he can do this, there is some hope for redemption for the party as it’s redefined by conservative principals. If not, not only will the party be gone, but much of what made America great in the first place. Ideas like free markets and individual liberty are already on the ropes. Let’s hope they don’t go down for the count.

What will Rush Limbaugh’s legacy be: Footnote or Patriot? Now is his time to decide...

I’ve been listening to Rush Limbaugh since about 1992. Although he claims to be right 99.8% of the time or something like that, I find that I only agree with him about 97% of the time.

I’ve listened with great interest as he has eloquently exposed the left’s perniciousness in situations where I saw nothing sinister at all. More times than I can count I listened to the news or read a paper and simply took what they said at face value. Then I would listen to Rush talk about the exact same event and discuss the media’s coverage of it and like Russell Crowe’s John Nash in A Beautiful Mind he would lay out in great specificity what was really going on. He is as skilled at revealing the underlying machinations of the left and the media (the same thing, really) as Nash was at solving codes.

At the same time, he has been equally successful in highlighting the hypocrisy of the GOP establishment’s embrace of big government and open borders.

For more than a quarter century I’ve listened to Rush trumpet the virtues of conservatism. For more than a quarter century I’ve listened to Rush proclaim that if Americans only had an articulate conservative champion to vote for they would and the nation would be saved. Now that the country has one in Ted Cruz – for the first time in a generation, where's Limbaugh?

I’ll tell you where he is… he’s sitting in his south Florida studio explaining why Donald Trump is so successful in outsmarting the pundits. Sure, he offers the requisite “Ted Cruz is a rock solid conservative” a couple of times a week, but he spends most of his time explaining why Trump seems to defy the odds that no one else would have a shot at.

It’s his show and he has every right to do exactly what he wants and say anything he wants. My question is however, does Rush Limbaugh want to be remembered as a political gadfly who uses his microphone to poke fun at liberals and illuminate the folly of the ruling class, or does he actually want to be a hero? He can be one or he can be the other, but he can’t be both.

If he truly believes what he has been saying over the last 28 years then now is the time for him to put his microphone where his mouth is. I’ll take Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton, but Donald Trump doesn’t solve the problems that are undermining the country as we speak. Donald Trump will not end big government. Donald Trump is not a champion for individual freedom. Donald Trump is not an enemy of crony capitalism. Donald Trump is not a fan of separation of powers or limited government. Ted Cruz is all of those things and more.

At the end of the day, Donald Trump embodies many – but not all – of the things Rush Limbaugh has been railing against for the past quarter century. So the question is, does Rush really believe what he says or is he simply trying to sell advertising? Not that there’s anything inherently wrong with the latter. I love watching the Big Bang Theory, but not for one second do I think the actors on that show are going to give Stephen Hawking a run for his money on a physics quiz. And they don’t expect me to believe it, they’re actors, I know they’re acting and it makes for great entertainment for me and they make lots of money. Great setup.

But the Rush Limbaugh Show is not a Hollywood sitcom. People don’t listen to Rush to listen to fiction. They listen to see the left exposed and listen to the heartfelt commentary from someone who cares about the United States, who champions freedom and explains (with examples) how liberty and free markets make the world a much better place than socialism, communism and most of what came before the United States was born.

And so, people like me look at Rush today and wonder if his heart is really in it or is he like a union leader who plays to the base while enriching himself at their expense? Although our expense in this case is time rather than money. We wonder if wrapping himself in the American flag and American values is simply a ploy to generate advertising dollars.

Right here, right now is where the tire hits the road. Donald Trump is well down the path to winning the GOP nomination. That might lead to a Trump or Clinton presidency. Neither would be good for the country nor for freedom… although a Clinton presidency would surely be worse. But we’re not there yet, and now is when the voice of Rush Limbaugh could actually make a difference. It won’t matter in the general because coming out of the conventions most minds are already made up, and the ones that aren’t are likely not listening to Rush.

This is not a call for Rush to savage Donald Trump. That’s not necessary. What is necessary however is to stop the with wall to wall “exposing” of the hypocrisy of the GOP establishment – which we all see – and the media’s duplicity as they prop up Trump only to knife him once the general campaign begins. What is necessary is for Rush to simply talk about how Trump doesn’t comport with most of the things he has championed for the last quarter century. To explain that Trump is an enemy of free markets, limited government and no fan of individual freedom. And explain why those things are important and why his posture on those ideas puts him closer to Barack Obama than they do to Ronald Reagan.

There are times in our lives when we are faced with real, consequential choices, and it’s up to us to us to decide what we want to leave behind when we’re gone. For 28 years Rush Limbaugh has eloquently stated the case that the United States is the greatest nation in the history of the world, our Constitution is possibly next to the Bible in importance in helping to improve the condition of man and that our free markets have driven more prosperity than the world has ever seen. He’s right… but the cancer of liberalism has put all of that at risk. The question is, a century from now, when people look back on Rush Limbaugh’s life, will they read about a political gadfly who entertained people between long commercial breaks or will they read about a patriot who helped the country survive the scourge of progressivism and helped bring about a conservative revolution that not only turned back the tide of big government, but unleashed the forces of freedom (both individual and markets) that ushered in a period of growth and prosperity unprecedented in all of human history?

That’s a choice Rush will have to make. Does he want to go down as a footnote in history or does he want to join the pantheon of giants who used their influence to make a difference as have Ben Franklin, J.P. Morgan, William F. Buckley and Milton Friedman?

Ted Cruz and the Oxymorons of Washington

Oxymoron: A figure of speech in which apparently contradictory terms appear in conjunction

One sometimes thinks the word started with our government: Government Intelligence… Government Efficiency... Government Accountability… In reality, it’s been around since the Greeks first coined the phrase, no doubt adding oxy to a word they probably used to describe their politicians too: Moron.

The Greeks may have invented the word, but the US government has perfected its common use. We have a welfare system whose ostensible goal is to get people back on their feet during hard times yet the numbers of people on the program never seems to go down. We have an education system that spends an ever increasing amount of money to somehow do an increasingly bad job of “educating” our students. Barack Obama has penned an agreement with Iran to keep them from getting nuclear weapons that actually rewards them for bad behavior AND makes it more likely they will get nuclear weapons!

As bad as those things are, and there are countless other examples, this very day we are witnessing possibly the single best example of government incompetence possible. So far this fiscal year the IRS has taken in more money than ever before, $2.6 trillion! Yet somehow they still managed to run a deficit of almost half a trillion dollars. And just two nights ago the utterly worthless GOP introduced a bill that enables even more incompetence in the form of a giant two year spending bill that would also raise the debt limit.  Somehow, Americans watch the middle class struggle while programs for the poor proliferate and the connected rich see their incomes skyrocket as Washington and its regulatory machine smothers more and more of the free market.

This is Washington unhinged. This is how liberalism works… including when enabled by the GOP. The government takes more and more of the citizens’ money, which leaves the citizens with less income with which to live their lives, nevermind have money left over to start businesses as they pursue the promise of prosperity. Seeing the resultant slowing economic growth, the government decides to come to the rescue by creating more regulations and more giveaways to make up for the “failures” of the free markets. It’s a viscous cycle… More government equals less freedom and less prosperity.

And today we have on full display the GOP’s disdain for freedom and prosperity. They seek crony capitalism for the specific purpose of ensuring their continued participation in the Washington cocoon – a comforting place where 7 out of the 10 richest counties in the country are located – out of a total of 3,143 counties! That Washington cocoon provides them with parties to attend, a staff to do their bidding, jobs for friends and family, introductions to the “right” people and of course a golden parachute upon leaving after having done enough favors for big business.

Unfortunately, this is likely a fait accompli as the anointed one, Paul Ryan, the soon to be head squish has jumped onboard. The result of this betrayal of the American people makes it only that much more important that voters look to someone like Ted Cruz to be the next president. We are at a point where the government continues to take more and more of our money, yet continues to demand to borrow even more, and this is while the GOP has both the House and the Senate. Ted Cruz has both the intellect and the intent to thwart the liberal enablers in the GOP. No one else in this race has shown the willingness to fight the GOP establishment the way Cruz has. Today’s treachery puts the nation on notice. If you want a change from the failure of liberal policies and crony capitalism, put someone in the White House who does more than talk a conservative game. Put someone in there who has shown a willingness to fight the leviathan of government and it’s GOP enablers. Someone who's not an oxymoron... That man is Ted Cruz.

The People's House... A Historic Opportunity To Lead Should Not Be Squandered On A Squish

First there was Eric Cantor. Then there was John Boehner. Now there’s Kevin McCarthy. But somehow conservatives are once again being encouraged to grab defeat out of the hands of victory. This time by electing amnesty advocate Paul Ryan as Speaker of the House.

We’ve been told the House is dysfunctional. Nothing could be farther from the truth. This is exactly how the House is supposed to operate. When someone doesn’t have the confidence of his party and they are in the majority, he should be shown the door. But we’re told that a group of right wing Tea Party types are somehow keeping the people’s representatives from governing. If only that were only true! If it were, Obamacare wouldn’t be funded. It is. Barack Obama’s amnesty wouldn’t be funded. It is. The debt ceiling wouldn’t have been raised like a helium balloon. It was. Unfortunately, the conservatives in the House have had little success stopping the big government policies of Barack Obama, the Democrats and the GOP establishment.

So, now, today, after the three highest members of the House GOP establishment are either out the door or on their way out, members are being encouraged to put a guy who is 100% establishment, Paul Ryan, in charge.

Not only should they ignore pleas to put Ryan in charge of the House, they should select a real conservative from the Freedom Caucus like Jim Jordan or Mark Meadows. In addition, they should immediately call for a Motion to Vacate the Chair and stop Boehner from doing… pretty much anything.

Of course we hear the gnashing of the teeth from the usual quarters of the establishment telling us that this is a disaster for the GOP… that a fight over Planned Parenthood, a fight over the debt ceiling, a fight over the Continuing Resolution will be suicidal for the GOP if they end up in a stalemate that ends up “shutting down the government.” Frankly, nothing could be farther from the truth.

Two years ago we heard the same thing when Ted Cruz shut down the Senate as he fought to defund Obamacare. We were told that the GOP would be blamed for the government shutdown – which, sadly, is nothing even close to a shutdown as 83% of the government still operated normally – and would likely lose all chances to take the Senate and would probably lose the House to boot. Then when the election finally came a funny thing happened… the GOP picked up seats in both houses and picked up the Senate in an historic win.

In 2010 the GOP picked up the House telling the country it would stop Obamacare. Led by the establishment, it didn’t. In 2014 the GOP picked up the Senate telling the American people it would stop Obama’s illegal amnesty. Once again the squishes in the middle buckled. The only reason the House is in turmoil today is because enough Americans voted to stop Barack Obama that something called the Freedom Caucus exists to throw it into that turmoil.

As I quoted Jim Dint saying in 2010 when I wrote in support of Christine O’Donnell for the Senate from Delaware over the despicable squish Mike Castle, “I’d rather lose fighting for the right cause than win fighting for the wrong cause.” What’s the point of winning if the guys you elect do exactly the same things the guys you voted against would have done? The voters have had enough of GOP squishes… as was demonstrated by Mitt Romney’s dismal performance at the polls in 2012. They want leadership that is willing to stand up and say they will fight Barack Obama’s leftist agenda, and then actually do so. Fight on the killing of babies in the womb? Bring it on. Fight to stop empowering government largesse via another debt ceiling increase? Absolutely. Fight to stop the drive to turn the country into a third world banana republic via open borders? When do we start?

In 2010 and 2014 Americans showed the GOP they were willing to support a fight to when they sent Representatives and Senators to Washington who had indeed promised to fight the progressive cancer that has taken over Washington. Once again, once in power however, the party demurred from the fight.  The GOP establishment types were more interested in the perks of office, their privileges in Washington, making sure big donors were happy than actually accomplishing what voters had sent them to Washington to do.  That's the reason the GOP brand is so damaged, not "dysfunction".

We are in a unique moment in American history and for once the GOP has the opportunity to show real leadership when it really counts… i.e. in the run-up to the most important election in a generation. Not only should they not make Paul Ryan or any other amnesty loving establishment squish Speaker, they should find the most vocal, passionate conservative voice they can and proudly follow him as he leads a national debate on whether the future of America is one of prosperity driven by free markets and limited government or malaise and decline driven by government spending and regulation.  In the unlikely event they lose, so be it.  If a prosperous America is to be replaced by a third world banana republic, let freedom's death come after a full-throated defense of liberty rather than following a faux battle where party leaders put on a show for the little people but share cigars and whiskey in the halls of Congress as they divvy up the spoils of power.  

Now is exactly the time for such a full-throated fight, and appropriately enough history has put the People’s House on center stage. The question is, does the GOP have the courage to actually lead in a fight when it counts or would they rather play a paper tiger as Barack Obama sets fire to the United States Constitution?

Kim Kardashian, Robert F. Kennedy and why Donald Trump Scares the Hell out of the GOP

If you ask any American who Kim Kardashian is – other than perhaps one of her 34 million Twitter followers – they’ll likely tell you she is a vapid, self(ie) obsessed brunette with a propensity for public displays of nudity who leads a reality show band of dysfunctional misfits. They’d be right of course, but that wouldn’t be whole story.

That characterization would miss the fact that she is a brilliant marketer and businesswoman who has successfully harnessed rapidly evolving social media for a decade, and in turn attracted the attention of millions of young fans at a time when young people are notorious for having short attention spans. She has in turn turned those millions of fans into hundreds of millions of dollars not only for herself and her family, but for E! and a wide swath of the American publishing industry.

Good or bad, Kim Kardashian is an American cultural icon. So too is Donald Trump. When it comes to self promotion, Kim’s a piker as Trump has been at it for almost four decades – although she has ten times as many Twitter followers.

And now, in perhaps the greatest example of self promotion in human history, Donald Trump is running for President. And he just might win. In the world of political media, where seasoned politicians have spent years cultivating messages and controlling coverage, Trump is running the table. Although there are currently 17 candidates for the GOP nomination, from a media perspective there is really only one. He is sucking all of the oxygen out of the room… and as a result many seasoned and successful politicians will not survive for long.

And he’s doing it on someone else’s dime, despite the fact that he could afford to spend 10 times what everyone else in the field could, combined. Just as Kim Kardashian has leveraged the media to benefit herself, Donald trump has leveraged the media to put himself at the front of the pack. While Rick Perry, the extraordinarily successful governor of Texas is eliminating the paychecks of his staff, Trump has spent nary a dime advertising his campaign. Just as you may not like the way Kardashian gets coverage, she’s very good at it… and so is Trump. It’s neither the fault of Kardashian or Trump that America is celebrity obsessed. They simply take advantage of it.

But to write Trump off as a mere celebrity would be a mistake. He’s that, but much more. He is a consummate operator. Although he was born with a quarter billion dollar silver spoon in his mouth, to his credit he has improved on what he was born with twenty fold. Certainly there have been very public stumbles along the way, but each time he has recovered, spectacularly.

For those gnashing their teeth as to how it’s possible that a celebrity, with what might charitably called shaky conservative principals, could be leading the GOP field, they’re missing the forest for the trees. Donald Trump is not leading the field just because he’s a celebrity. He’s not leading the field because he said Mexico is operating a modern day Mariel boatlift and he’s going to build a wall to stop it. He’s not leading because he said something rude about Megyn Kelly. While those all have contributed, he’s leading because Americans think he can and will get something done… particularly building the wall.

In A Thousand Days: John F. Kennedy in the White House Arthur M. Schlesinger recounts a story about the president’s brother Robert F. Kennedy… if I remember it correctly! As Attorney General RFK noticed a sign on the GW Parkway indicating the exit for CIA headquarters. He called someone in charge to get the sign removed. Months later the sign was still there. He called again. Months later the wheels of bureaucracy had still not turned and the sign was still there. Finally Kennedy called the Parkway gardener and told him to take it down personally… and it was gone.

Americans see that nothing works in Washington. America has become that sign. Cameras catch thousands of illegals crossing into the country every single day for decades and yet Washington can do nothing. Regardless of how much money is spent on welfare it keeps growing. The tax code is so complex that the people who wrote it don’t even understand it. Government has become V’Ger from the first Star Trek movie; it’s taken on a life of its own, with no master.

Rightly or wrongly, Americans think that Trump can be government’s master. He may not say the right things, he may be a crony capitalist of the highest order, he may have an ego the size of the Empire State Building… but he gets things done. America sees itself as the Wolman Rink of the world, and the Washington establishment is the Koch administration.

Sadly, the GOP establishment and the media don’t get that. In what is perhaps the most inane interview in political history, Bradley Blakeman, a former Bush administration official complained that Trump doesn’t have the infrastructure, the boots on the ground that campaigns usually have. He decries the fact that Trump has not announced who his advisors are, hasn’t spent any money on a campaign and doesn’t have what’s necessary to get voters out to the primaries. Americans don’t care if Trump spends a dollar on his campaign. They don’t care that he doesn’t have an army of advisors telling him the right thing to say, the name of the president of Burundi or what the new EPA regulations stipulate about CO2 emissions. Americans don’t want someone who can ace a civics test. They want someone who can get things done. Trump does that.

Blakeman, like the GOP establishment, misses the fundamental point. The point of campaigns is to get voters excited and get them to vote, not to build infrastructure or hire campaign strategists. The establishment fears Trump because he can win without them. He doesn’t need them or their cabal to succeed. Like Ronald Reagan before him, Trump can and does take his case directly to the American people. And if a president doesn't need the establishment... their power is gone… and with it their privilege. Then they will have to figure out how to compete in the real world, where effort and results drive success, something they are not particularly accustomed to doing.

Of course, Reagan had a long track record of success in government experience before he entered the White House. Trump does not. For six years we’ve lived with the consequences of a president who has no executive experience in government. It’s been a disaster. But it’s been a disaster not because Barack Obama doesn’t know what he’s doing, but rather because Barack Obama is an anti-American anti-free market narcissist with dictatorial proclivities. Donald Trump too is a narcissist and may have dictatorial proclivities and isn't exactly Adam Smith... but he’s nothing if not rabidly pro-American.

Actual voting is still months away and by January Trump may have faded from view like most of the males who enter the Kardashian universe. But until then, Donald Trump is giving Americans something they crave, someone who promises to go to Washington and change the rules, break the bureaucracy and get something done. In the process he’s doing the nation a great service that hopefully will outlive his campaign… reminding Americans that that the business of Washington isn’t to perpetuate its own power, but rather to serve at the behest of the people.

Ted Cruz Has a 15:1 Advantage Over Jeb Bush With Conservatives... And Why the Establishment Should Care

It’s sometimes said that you can tell a lot about a person by the friends they keep. That makes sense. Friendships are generally based on complementary personalities, shared values, and a variety of intangibles that cause people to bond.

Money in politics is a similar barometer. The vast majority of Americans never donate any money to politicians or get involved in politics at all. For all of the kvetching about money in politics, there’s really not that much there. In 2012 a total of $6 billion was spent on politics. That includes spending by campaigns, outside groups, and independent organizations. To put that in perspective, Americans spend almost twice that amount on bottled water each year, five times as much at McDonalds and twelve times that on the lottery.

In addition, it’s only a small minority of Americans who donate to political campaigns at all, about 11% on average. Eleven percent sounds low, but that’s actually enormous when compared to the .05% of donors who provide $2.7 billion of that $6 billion by making contributions of $2,600 or more. Talk about “The 1%”! Campaigns seem to be funded largely from “The .05%”. Here’s the breakdown: 89% of Americans give $0 dollars to campaigns, 10.5% give a total of $3.3 billion, while .05% of the population give the other $2.7 billion. That means that a total of about 15,000 people are responsible for almost half the money spent on our elections… out of 315 million people.

Although the money is relatively evenly distributed between the parties, within the GOP there is an interesting dichotomy. Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz, who raised similar amounts in the June 15 to June 30 period – $11.4 million and $10 million respectively – make for a good illustration. When Bush released his fundraising numbers, they showed that 97% of his money came from donors who gave more than $200. For Cruz that number was 61%. More interesting however are the average numbers. Overall, Bush had a total of 12,334 donors who gave an average of $926. At the same time Cruz had a total of 175,000 donors who gave an average of $81. Cruz had fifteen times as many donors but raised $1.4 million less!

This is not a screed against the rich. Rich people are often successful businessmen and that’s something we could use more of. What we don’t need more of however is crony capitalism. And that’s what makes these reports so compelling. They came out just a week before a report that the Chamber of Commerce, the shill for big corporations, is planning on targeting small government conservatives in the House, many of whom are strong Cruz allies. Their goal is to derail true border control, maintain the Export Import Bank and harness government to shield big businesses from competition whenever possible.

This of course shines an illuminating light on the Bush / Cruz numbers. Cruz is very much a phenomenon of the Tea Party movement. Against crony capitalism, against illegal immigration, against big government, and stridently so, he has animated grassroots conservatives in a way no one has in decades. (Or at least he had until the Trump earthquake came along… even if Trump is not really a conservative.) This is illustrated by the fact that 175,000 people donated to his campaign in its first two weeks. Bush on the other not only supports comprehensive immigration reform (which basically means no wall, no reform plus amnesty to boot) but shows his big government bona fides by seeking to foist the dysfunctional Common Core on the country. Both of those issues are anathema to conservatives and as a result, Bush has attracted very little in the way of grass roots support. He has however gained the support of the K Street mafia, the GOP establishment and their Chamber of Commerce enablers.

Of course there’s a long way to go and there are other candidates in the field, but it’s telling that there is such a stark contrast between what are the left and right wings of the party. While money may make up a big part of politics, success comes from getting people out of their chairs and into the voting booths. The GOP should take notice of the fact that small donor conservatives have broken 15 to 1 for Cruz against Bush. While that might not mean much in terms of money, on November 8th of next year it will be critical. After having been steamrolled by the establishment during the last two elections and seeing the resulting candidates go down in flames, conservatives may just decide to sit 2016 out if the party nominates another milquetoast candidate whose focus is on keeping the Chamber happy rather than working to shrink government and get it out of the big business business. Such as desertion just might be fatal for the GOP as it would likely lead to three consecutive losses, the first time that's happened since FDR.  With two viable parties a third party stands little chance in American politics, however with a feeble party unable to win the big prize, the prospects for one are greatly enhanced.  That's something the GOP establishment just might want to ponder as they seek to hand the nomination to another Bush.

Donald Trump is the Canary in the GOP Coalmine

Donald Trump is performing a very important task for the GOP… he’s an indication that the brand still has a pulse. Not much of one… but it’s there.

Americans are fed up with Republicans, particularly the establishment types. How do we know? Because twice in the last six years a majority of voters elected Barack Obama as president. In both cases Obama won against the establishment’s to carry the party’s water. John McCain, while strong on defense and right on the Surge, was wrong on much else including campaign finance reform and immigration, and he refused to highlight the anti-American friendships of Barack Obama. Similarly, while Mitt Romney was right on Russia and China, he was hardly a conservative, having implemented RomneyCare and pronouncing himself a Republicans who believed in Climate Change. And he too refused to attack Obama where he was most vulnerable, this time on Benghazi.

When Americans had a choice was between a hardcore liberal Democrat and a milquetoast Republican, a majority picked the Democrat, twice, despite the fact that he was utterly unqualified in both cases. In 2008 he was unqualified because he had never run anything… ever, and in 2012 he was utterly unqualified because in four years of running the government he had gotten literally everything wrong. But a majority of Americans voted for him rather than the GOP milquetoast.

Which brings us to Donald Trump. He may be many things… arrogant, brusque, a crony capitalist and only marginally connected to the GOP… but one thing he is not is milquetoast. Which is why he is now leading the GOP for the nomination. Some Republicans don’t like what he has to say, but they like the fact that he’s saying it and the is willing to stand up and unabashedly fight for his position. He’s like Chris Christy used to be – and just as bad in some ways. When he’s in the ring you know exactly where he stands, and Americans like that.

When Trump said that Mexico was not sending over their best and suggested that many of the people coming over were criminals, he started a firestorm, from every direction, including from Republicans. And of course the media dutifully reported on his comments and promptly lied, and put words in his mouth. While many Republicans may not quite agree with Trump, they sure as hell don’t believe the narrative coming from the Democrats and the White House that every illegal alien in the country is just a poor, formerly destitute angelic youth who is simply seeking a better life for himself. Because that narrative is so counter to the reality Americans see on the news and on the street corner, conservatives are willing to accept some hyperbole if it at least means the issue gets addressed… something the Chamber of Commerce owned GOP establishment is unwilling to do.

Donald Trump may not make it to the finish line. But if he doesn’t, the GOP ignores his message, and style, at its peril. If the GOP establishment produces another milquetoast candidate who’s not willing to articulate and defend conservative positions, particularly those that related to immigration and border security, they will lose. Whether the nominee is Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders or some dark horse who’s not even on the radar yet, if the GOP doesn’t give conservatives a candidate who is willing to take the fight to the Democrats in a no holds barred match, they’ll find themselves with the first triple defeat since FDR. And this time they may not find their way back.

Conservatives may not currently have a viable alternative to the GOP, but they do have the choice to sit at home and do nothing. And do nothing they will. After two cycles of being ignored, only to be proven prescient in their prognostications on the disaster of Barack Obama, conservatives have little motivation to engage the enemy again if the fighters on their team aren’t willing to mix it up. Donald Trump may be a flawed candidate, but he’s invigorating the Republican base, something the establishment of the GOP hasn’t done in too many years.

Surrender: Why does anyone ever vote for the Republican Party... at least one run by Boehner & McConnell?

Do you ever wonder sometimes why Americans vote? How many times have you heard people say “I don’t vote because my vote doesn’t really matter, those politicians are going to do what they want regardless of how I vote.” In some cases that’s true. Obamacare was a perfect example. In January 2010 Scott Brown won his campaign for the Senate in deep blue Massachusetts by promising to be the 41st vote against Obamacare. The Democrats didn’t care, and despite the fact that 60% of the American people were opposed to Obamacare, they sidestepped Brown and used “reconciliation” to shove the law down the throats of the American people. As a result, that November the GOP retook the House in a landslide election, but by that point the damage had ever been done. If there was ever an example of politicians doing exactly what they wanted in the face of constituent opposition, Obamacare was it.

So why did citizens reward Democrats in 2012 and send Barack Obama back to work? Because presidential elections are personality driven contests (as opposed to issue driven contests) far more than are midterms, with the presidential candidates generating an unparalleled level of attention. Voters in midterm elections are generally more engaged and more aware of the issues than many who vote in presidential elections. Not sure? How many videos did you see in 2008 where voters could barely name the vice presidential candidates, nevermind the issues or candidates lower down the ticket. That reality repeated itself in 2012 with the cult of Barack Obama. Add to that the fact that Mittens Romney ran a campaign so uninspiring that millions of conservatives didn’t even bother to show up and it’s easy to understand how the country got another 4 years of The One.

Just two years later however, 2014 proved to be 2010 on steroids as the GOP picked up 9 seats in the Senate. Why? Not only had Obamacare proven to be exactly the disaster Republicans had predicted, but more timely was the fact that Barack Obama was basically promising amnesty to 4 million illegal immigrants. For the GOP, the numbers were clear: fully 70% of GOP voters were against Obama’s amnesty and at the end of the day those voters delivered a victory.

But alas, that doesn’t seem to matter. Like the Democrats in 2010 voting for something 60% of the Americans didn’t want, in 2014 the Republican leadership plans to ignore the wishes of 70% of their constituents by surrendering on immigration.

Surrender? That is essentially what the leadership has done as it promises there will be no government shutdown. The purse strings are one of the few checks the legislative branch has on the executive. As such, the primary way Congress can impact what the administration does is by deciding what to fund and what not to fund. In this context, a shutdown would occur when Congress passes a bill to fund the entire government except for those DHS functions involved in the president’s amnesty and then the president vetoes it. No dice say Boehner and McConnell. They are scared that the GOP would be blamed for any shutdown and get hammered in 2016. That’s an illusion, as most of the government would still function, and, frankly, most Americans wouldn’t even notice a shutdown were it not for the bleating of the administration’s media minions. In last year’s shutdown, once it was over a full 78% of Americans reported that they weren’t inconvenienced by the shutdown at all and another 11% felt only minor inconveniences. And a year later the GOP went on to flatten the Democrats in the midterms!

So the question is, why would anyone bother to vote for the GOP in the first place? What’s the point? If they are going to rail against the president acting unconstitutionally but take the single most powerful weapon for stopping him off the table, what’s the difference between the parties besides rhetoric? The truth is, now that they are firmly back in power, Boehner and McConnell feel like they have no obligation to respect their voter’s wishes. Apparently the desire of the Chamber of Commerce’s members for cheap labor trumps Republican voter’s opposition to amnesty.

Such has become life in America in the 21st Century. Half of the voters don’t bother to vote because they feel like their votes don’t count and the other half go to the polls to prove them right. Barack Obama has demonstrated that government can basically do what it wants, regardless of what the law says. The GOP has ostensibly stood against that principal as it claimed to be a bulwark built on the voices of the people. But in reality it is anything but. If the GOP is unwilling to go to the mattresses for amnesty, one of the most visceral issues of the day, what are they willing to do for more pedestrian things like reining in the bureaucracy or the welfare state?

If Boehner, McConnell and the GOP establishment continue to act as paper tigers in the fight against government overreach because they fear a 2016 backlash, they should be prepared to for that backlash to become a self fulfilling prophecy as conservatives abandon them in droves. Some will go Libertarian, some will stay home and some will simply jump ship to the Democrats. At the end of the day at least with Democrats voters understand that the law is no roadblock to getting what you want. Why bother voting for the Republican illusion of restraint when they can simply throw their weight behind Democrats and at least sit at the table when the spoils are dispensed?

The GOP leadership must be using Common Core math to do the calculations on Immigration... and the result is exactly what you'd expect.

Anyone who cares about prosperity has to ask themselves, just how stupid are the people running the Republican Party? One has to wonder, do they even bother to look beyond NBC, the New York Times and TIME magazine for their news and information? Have they ever even bothered to pick up a PEW research paper? You sometimes have to think that if they were around in the 16th century they would have been happy knowing the sun traveled around the earth and ignored the data from Copernicus and Galileo.

In a similar way, today we have GOP leaders have been talking about passing “immigration reform” for years. Just last month House Speaker John Boehner told a group of donors he is “hellbent on getting this (immigration reform) done this year”. Frankly, he might as well put a proverbial gun in the mouth of the Republican Party and pull the trigger – which might not necessarily be a bad thing.

Despite the stories the GOP tells itself while hiding under the covers at night, immigration reform is not the path to success in American politics. And it’s not like there’s not precedent for them to look at. One of Ronald Reagan’s biggest mistakes was when he allowed himself to be hoodwinked by Tip O’Neill into signing Simpson Mazzoli into law. The law allowed 3 million illegal aliens to become citizens and was to be followed by stronger border security. While the citizenship part happened, the border security part never did… and as a result millions more Democrat voters were created. What’s even worse, the amnesty encouraged tens of millions more people from Mexico and Central America to cross the Rio in expectation that they too could be granted amnesty.

The consequence of the failure of creating a strong border has been unambiguously bad for the GOP in general and for the notion of limited government in particular. Coincidentally, as reported by the Center for Immigration Studies, the result of amnesty and our dysfunctional immigration policies has pushed voter support for the GOP down by approximately 6% between 1980 & 2012.

Of course the numbers do tell a story, but the GOP is looking at the wrong numbers. The Republican leadership is concerned that the Hispanic population is the largest minority in the country and they are simultaneously the fastest growing minority. They look at the raw numbers and worry that if they don’t get on the immigration bandwagon that they will get left behind. Their solution is to jump on that wagon despite the fact that it’s heading towards a brick wall.

In this case the brick wall is government control and a lack of economic freedom and prosperity. Some other numbers tell the story. One has only to look at where the immigrants are coming from to understand what numbers really matter.

Over the last 15 years 60% of the legal immigration into the United States has come from six countries: Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, and Costa Rica. Fully 45% came from Mexico alone. At the same time 75% of illegal immigrants are from those same countries. To see what numbers are really important, take a look at where those countries rank on the Heritage Foundation’s Economic Freedom Index – which includes economic freedom and government regulation and taxation. Whereas the United States is today at a discouragingly low 12 and moving down (1 is the best – Hong Kong & 178 is the worst – North Korea), we are still far above those six countries: Mexico -55, El Salvador -59, Guatemala -83, Honduras -112, Panama -71, and Costa Rica -53. Those immigrants are coming from countries where big government reigns supreme and it shows in their economic standing in the world. Per Capita Income on a purchasing power parity basis – which takes into account the differences in costs in different countries – is perhaps the best way to measure their economic standing. According to the IMF, while Per Capita Income in the US ranks 6th in the world, of these six countries Panama is the highest at 61st and Honduras is the worst at 112th.

Of course none of that would matter if those immigrants were coming to the United States to start anew, embrace freedom, private enterprise and pursue the American dream. Unfortunately that’s not what’s happening. They are seeking to replicate the big government dysfunction and disasters of their home countries here in the United States. According to PEW, among the general population (which includes Hispanics) 48% of Americans want smaller government and 41% want bigger government. Among Hispanics only 19% want smaller government while 75% want bigger government and more spending. And the numbers are even worse among first generation Americans 12% are for smaller government while 81% for bigger government and more spending.

And it’s not just their opinions. They are voting that position as well, voting for Democrats over Republicans 2:1 on average since 1980. Despite what the GOP establishment keeps telling itself, immigration reform means more Democrats in office, more big government, more government control, higher taxes and more government redistribution. That growth in government results in less freedom, fewer choices in the marketplace and above all, less prosperity for all Americans, both new and old.

Big, overreaching, stultifying government the issue of our time.  It's opposite, small, limited government is the key to American success and prosperity.  The GOP establishment need look only at the voting record of blacks in America to understand that big government means big problems for Republican survival. But the reality is, the demographic trends are what they are, and if the GOP has any hope of surviving, it will have to learn to stop pandering by demographics. They will have to learn to articulate how small government and free markets are the key drivers of prosperity, not government control and redistribution. They have to demonstrate that limited government and free markets offer all Americans; blacks, Hispanics, whites and everyone else the greatest opportunity to find success and achieve the American dream, regardless of where they came from. So far they have been utter failures in that messaging, save voices like Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Sarah Palin and a few others. While it may take a while for the party to find the right message, if Boehner and Co. ram through immigration reform before the 2014 elections it may no longer matter. Let’s hope Boehner takes a wrong turn somewhere on the campaign trail and ends up lost in Lake Erie for the next six months…

Ted Cruz, Thomas Sowell and Battles Worth Fighting...

In my opinion Thomas Sowell is easily the smartest man in America. From Basic Economics, to Black Rednecks and White Liberals to his definitive dissection of the most recent economic collapse in The Housing Boom and Bust, his books are nothing short of brilliant. And of course it’s not just books, he writes a weekly column as well, does interviews, lectures and does research at Stanford’s Hoover Institute. His prodigious talents make him one of the great thinkers and writers of our time.

As much as I enjoy and agree with almost everything Sowell writes, I believe he’s wrong about Ted Cruz. He was not happy with Cruz leading the charge for the government shutdown last year and he’s not at all happy with him on his efforts to unseat RINO republicans.

On the shutdown Dr. Sowell suggested that there was no point fighting the battle because it could simply not be won. “Even if, by some miracle, the Republicans managed to get the Senate to go along with defunding ObamaCare, President Obama can simply veto the bill.” That is factually correct. There was no chance that Obama was going to sign any bill that defunded Obamacare… but that’s OK. Sowell is also correct that the GOP was going to get blamed for the shutdown by a bootlicking media. But the funny thing was, despite the Democrat’s and the media’s warnings that the sky would fall… it didn’t. During the “shutdown” 83% of all government spending went on unmolested, and perhaps most glaringly, only 22% of American people said they were inconvenienced by the shutdown at all! That’s a much lower percentage than the number of Americans who had a negative opinion of Obamacare at that same time, 44% and who wanted Obamacare repealed, 34%.

While the media sought to paint the shutdown as a GOP mistake, Ted Cruz gave the GOP leadership an opportunity to harness that attention to articulate why they were fighting to save the country from Obamacare. The fact that the leadership chose not to, or is genetically incapable of doing so is not Cruz’s fault. At a time when the nation’s attention was focused on government policies, Cruz gave the GOP an opportunity to show that “business as usual” was no longer going to fly. Not surprisingly, they failed to do so.

Dr. Sowell is equally perturbed by Ted Cruz’s willingness to attack the GOP leadership, which includes Senators who are up for election in 2014, such as Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Whip John Cornyn. Also his filibuster in October in an attempt to get the GOP to hold Obamacare hostage to the debt ceiling.

Dr. Sowell often compares (in a negative light) Cruz to George Washington. There is a United States of America today only because George Washington understood that his army was not able to fight the British troops everywhere, but had to choose carefully when and where to fight. Futile symbolic confrontations were a luxury that could not be afforded then and cannot be afforded now.

He makes a similar point using the illustration of the Dunkirk rescue: The British troops who escaped from Dunkirk came back to France four years later, as part of the massive invasion forces that stormed the beaches at Normandy, liberated France and pushed on into Germany for the final defeat of the Nazi regime.

In politics, as in war, you need power to win, and you don't dissipate your forces fighting battles that you are sure to lose. Symbolism and emotional self-indulgence are just not worth it.

While admitting Dr. Sowell is right that Barack Obama’s veto pen would likely rule the day in most situations, I do not agree with his contention that fighting a battle is not worth fighting just because you know you’ll probably lose. That’s because there’s a difference between a battle and a war, and Americans are very much involved in a war. That war may not involve bullets and bayonets, but the stakes are as high as anything George Washington ever fought for. It is literally for the freedom that he won for us and the Constitution secured for us.

Whereas Dr. Sowell compares Ted Cruz’s battles to Washington’s at New York or to the British at Dunkirk, I think a better comparison is to Leonidas at Thermoplyae or the defenders of the Alamo. In both cases the battles were lost, but they inspired the winning of the larger war. Fortunately, in the war effort Ted Cruz is leading the consequences of losing a battle will surely not be fatal, probably even to a political career. But what they might do is finally arouse an American populace that has forgotten that liberty and prosperity are built on the Constitutional principles of individual freedom, limited government and free enterprise and not on government mandates and largesse.

Ted Cruz may lose many of the battles he fights, but the battles are worth fighting. For too long conservatives have acquiesced to the tactics of “establishment” Republicans and as a result we’ve had more than a quarter century of the winnowing of our freedoms and the unfettered growth of government. From farm bills to debt limits to welfare spending to Obamacare, the GOP’s willingness to play it safe has resulted in one unmitigated disaster after another, culminating in the reelection of Barack Obama in 2012. Maybe Dr. Sowell is right, maybe Ted Cruz’s tactics will lose the Senate for the GOP in 2014. If so, so be it. If the American system is going to collapse under its own weight – which is surely the case with the current trajectory – then let the damage be done so that we can get on with the task of rebuilding a nation based on liberty, the rule of law and free markets. I’m not convinced a majority of American citizens are suicidal however, and as Ted Cruz fights the good fight I expect more and more of them will stop and take notice of his message of (very) limited government. With all due respect to the Smartest Man in America, I believe that’s a message worth fighting for.

Ted Cruz and what the GOP establishment can learn from Osama Bin Laden...

In 1975 & 76 the United States was experiencing a crisis of confidence. Unemployment was at 8.5%, our allies in South Vietnam, who 58,000 American servicemen gave their lives to defend, had just been overrun and the reverberations of an OPEC embargo were sending oil prices from $15 a barrel to $100. At the same time Paul Ehrlich was warning about overpopulation and starvation, Newsweek was telling of a coming ice age and many thought we were conceding Eastern Europe to the Soviets.

It was into this emotional and economic morass stepped Ronald Wilson Reagan with a message of hope. He took clear aim at Gerald Ford and fought him all the way to the convention floor. He did so against the wishes of GOP party barons. He did so despite warnings that he would irreparably damage Gerald Ford and give the election to the Democrats. Reagan held firm, and indeed Ford lost to Jimmy Carter, who took an economic malaise and turned it into a full blown economic disaster. Interestingly, after Reagan’s speech at the convention many delegates left wondering if they had made the wrong choice…

If that’s where the story ended, it would indeed be a cautionary tale. But as we all know, the story didn’t end there. In 1980 Ronald Reagan picked up where he left off and eventually beat Carter in a landslide, taking 44 states and the Senate with him, the first GOP Senate majority in a quarter century.

At the end of the day, the 1980 election had something the Ford Carter contest four year before didn’t – a clear cut contest of ideas, with Carter suggesting the solution to the nation’s problems could be found in government action while Reagan felt government was the problem. The American people were faced with the starkest contrast since LBJ beat Barry Goldwater in 1964. Faced with that contrast and with conservative principals clearly articulated by Reagan the contest wasn’t even close.

The point to be drawn from 1976 & 1980 is not that one shouldn’t buck the establishment, but rather that when Americans are presented with a clearly articulated conservative candidate, conservatism wins and the establishment will eventually get on board… if only to avoid being left out in the cold. The Goldwater loss was unique in that it occurred in the shadow of JFK’s assassination.

Today we are faced with a somewhat similar scenario, where a number of “Wacko Bird” conservatives, with Ted Cruz leading the pack, are bucking the GOP establishment. While it’s not in a presidential campaign (yet) the lines are just as stark as they were a quarter century ago and the stakes just as high. Cruz, along with Mike Lee and few friends are suggesting that a government shutdown is preferable – although not necessary – to the American people getting the hook of Obamacare subsidies set in their wallets, because everyone knows that once an entitlement is in place it’s next to impossible to repeal. The barons of the party, from Boehner and McConnell to Rove and Krauthammer, suggest that the backlash from a stoppage will come back to bite the GOP at the polls in 2014. That isn’t a compelling argument in the first place, but it’s particularly feeble given the recent dire warnings – albeit from the president – but little actual blowback for the GOP from the sequester kicking in.

Cruz and co. have also come out strongly against Marco Rubio’s wretched immigration bill. Seemingly the entire GOP establishment is braying that if the House doesn’t pass this monstrosity that the GOP will go the way of the Whigs. The reality is that this bill will not only not accomplish what the establishment Pooh-Bahs claim, but it may well bring about the very outcome they claim fear, eviscerating support for the GOP, only in this case from conservatives fed up with a party that plays pander politics just like the Democrats. Indeed, conservatives constantly harangue liberals for their ignoring the facts in favor of fanciful claims that never come true. In this case the GOP barons need only look back to Ronald Reagan’s faulty 1986 immigration reform to recognize what failure looks like and understand that the Gang of Eight’s abomination is simply a replay that will have even worse results.

The bottom line is that Cruz should not only carry on, but he should draw bright lines in the sand or on the Capitol Hill steps or anywhere else he can get an audience. The Obama agenda in general and these two pieces of legislation in particular are going to be keys to the destruction of the GOP and the nation. At some point creating a national majority of dependant voters will have permanent negative consequences for a party that claims to champion freedom and opportunity. If Ronald Reagan demonstrated anything in 1980 it is that Americans respond to clear lines. In 2008 & 2012 the GOP establishment produced highly flawed candidates whose lack of conservative bona fides caused millions of voters to simply stay home rather than actually go to the polls… and this is despite the fact that the opponent was Barack Obama, and they hate that guy!

The GOP establishment can whine as much as they want about Cruz et. al scaring away middle class voters and minorities by digging in against pandering legislation, but the reality is that since 1992 the establishment has delivered five popular vote defeats and one modest victory. In the Electoral College they’ve delivered more than half the states just twice. Compare that to Ronald Reagan’s three victories (as Bush I’s first campaign was a referendum on Reagan’s policies) where the he delivered popular vote victories of 10%, 18% and 8% and Electoral advantages of 38, 48 and 30 states.

The lesson to be learned is not that the GOP should seek to out pander Democrats, but rather, they should make a strong stand for conservative principals and give the voters a clear choice rather than forcing them to choose between the lesser of two evils. In what is no doubt the only time in my life I’ll ever quote Osama Bin Laden in a positive context, he was unquestionably right when he said: “When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse.” Ted Cruz is just such a strong horse and he should continue to buck the GOP establishment and in the process demonstrate exactly what it means to stand for something. If he does that, my guess is that voters will respond positively to a 2016 run. The question is, are there enough “Wacko Birds” in and out of Congress willing to pick up their shields and emulate him in order to make 2014 look more like 2010 than 2006? For the country and the GOP’s sake, let’s hope so.